All students and postdoctoral fellows need to prepare a two pages pdf to introduce themself on Tuesday Afternoon.

All lecturer must have their presentation as pdf to load it on the web site.

Bring your own mug.

Format: Morning overview lectures will provide a common background on observations, theory, analysis and modelling techniques. Afternoon group work will provide practical introduction to interdisciplinary research. We will have around five groups comprising participants with expertise from the fields of oceanography, climate and marine ecosystems research, and with a mix of early career, PhD and masters students.

 

Participants will have an opportunity to briefly introduce their own research topic on day#1, so that participants can get an idea of the basis of interdisciplinary group work.

The groups will be challenged to explain observed marine ecosystem changes and to discuss how they may change in the future, based on analysis of observations, conceptual understanding, and simple modelling studies, and available climate change and prediction experiments.

On the last day, groups will give presentations on what they have learned and on ideas for future research directions.  This will be concluded with a group discussion.

SCHEDULE

                 Tuesday 14    Wednesday 15    Thursday 16    Friday 17  Monday 20  Tuesday 21  
MONDAY 13  tea at 1700 Ice breaker at 1800 and dinner at 1930 at UCT clubS Uate
TUESDAY 14Sate
 

8:15 meet at All Africa House and walk to the venue at 8:25.

8:40-9:00 Welcome and logistics: Room L James Building, University Avenue North, Physics Dept. We will pick you up at  the all Africa house and we will walk to the venue. Otherwise take a left past the entrance of James Building from University Avenue and then a right into Room L.

09:00-09:15 Introductory to goals of the summer school (pdf)

Noel Keenlyside, UiB; Lynne Shannon, UCT

09:15-10:15 A perspective on the Southern Benguela marine social-ecological system (pdf)

Astrid Jarre, UCT

10:15-10:45 Coffee break

10:45-11:40 Advancing climate prediction for the tropical Atlantic (pdf)

Noel Keenlyside, UiB

11:40-12:30 A perspective on the North Eastern Brazil marine ecosystem (pdf-1, pdf-2)

Ronaldo Angelini, UFRN

​12:30 13:45 Lunch at the UCT club

 

Tentative plan

13:45-17:30 Introduction of student participants and background for daily exercises

Student presentations

Aim: Introduce yourself and your research project, as a starting point for the interdisciplinary group work

Format: 5 minute presentation, maximum 2 slides

13:45-14:35 Student presentations session 1​

  1. Founi Mesmin Awo

  2. Micael AGUEDJOU

  3. Simone Maria de Albuquerque Lira

  4. Juliano Dani

  5. Fernand ASSENE MVONGO

  6. Faye Brinkman

  7. Arielle Stela Imbol

  8. Serge Tomety Togo

  9. Natalia Herran

  10. Rodrigue Anicet Imbol Koungue 

14:35-15:00 Brief introduction to ecological indicators and their use (pdf)

Lynne Shannon

Aim:  To introduce indicator time series to the students for their consideration during the summer school (in their reflection sessions at the end of each day)

15:00-15:30 Coffee and tea break

15:30-16:15 Student presentations session 2

  1. Herman Luyt

  2. Fernanda Nascimento

  3. Kone Mamadou

  4. Syumara Quieroz E Silva

  5. Franz Philip Tuchen

  6. Zahibo Evariste Jupiter

  7. Julia Galetti Rodrigues

  8. Sadegh Yari

  9. Natasha Costa

16:15-16:30 Short break

16:30-17:15 Student presentations session 3

  1. Hadi Bordbar

  2. Isabelle Oliveira

  3. Lander R. Crespo

  4. Arthur Prigent

  5. Ina Nilsen

  6. Iñigo Gómara

  7. Leilane Passos

  8. Bafana Gweba

  9. Carlos Veloy

19:00  Dinner​ at UCT club

 
Wednesday 15  - Physical Oceanography

​8:30-9:20 The tropical and south Atlantic Ocean circulation and oxygen distributions (pdf-1, pdf-2)

Peter Brandt, GEOMAR

Aim: to provide a large-scale picture of ocean dynamics relevant to understanding marine ecosystem distributions

9:25-10:15 Historical and modern oceanographic observations (in situ and satellite) and reanalysis

Mathieu Rouault, UCT/NTC
Aim: to provide an overview of data that can be used for understanding marine ecosystem distributions  (pdf)

10:15-10:45 Coffee break

10:45-11:35 Regional dynamics and modelling of the SE Atlantic (pdf)

Martin Schmidt, IOW

11:40-12:30 Agulhas current 

Marjolaine Krug, UTC/NTC

Aim: introduce the Agulhas current and its impact on the Atlantic

12:30 13:45 Lunch

13:45 - 18:00 Exercises and mini-projects

Aim to provide practical insight into the oceanographic variations relevant to the groups marine ecosystem timeseries.

 

Group work:

Rodrigue Imbol proposes:
Question: What is the role of the Eastern boundary current (Angola Current) system in shifting physical and Biogeochemical gradient?
Data:  Ship sections at 11˚S, CTD and Mooring at 11˚S.

 

Philip Tuchen proposes for his group the following question:
Question: What is the role of intrasesonal variability on the equatorial ecosystem?
Data: Equatorial CTD section and Mooring time series at 23˚W;0˚N.

 

Mesmin Awo proposes:
Question: As ocean salinity influences the upper ocean stratification then impacts the regional upwelling in south east tropical Atlantic, what are the main mechanisms that drive the seasonal variation of sea surface salinity in this region?
Data: ocean salinity data set (in situ, satellite and model outputs), river discharge and ocean current (satellite glob current, Oscar).

 

Sadegh Yari proposes: 
Question: What are the effects of wind variations on the upwelling in the South east Atlantic area?  
Data: Wind data 

 

Juliano Dani proposes:
Title: Superimposing ocean physical parameters criteria for explaining the variability of surface chlorophyll production: study case Northwest of Madagascar.
Data: sea surface current, surface wind, surface temperature, and mixed layer depth.

In the final hour each group will need to present a short summary of what they have learned. 

19:00  Dinner​ at UCT club

 
 Thursday 16 - Climate drivers

8:30 - 9:20  Observed and simulated tropical Atlantic variability (pdf)

Shunya Koseki, UiB
Aim: Introduce the major modes of climate variability (Atlantic Nino, Beguela Nino, AMM, AMV) and summarize the performance of climate models in reproducing the variability.

9:25 - 10:15 Local and remote impacts on the marine ecosystems of the SE Atlantic (pdf)

Marylou Bachelery, UCT/NTC
Aim: Introduction to biophysical interactions that could lead rise to predictability of marine ecosystem changes. It would be good if you could include some modelling aspects

10:15 - 10:45 Coffee and tea break

10:45 - 11:35 Global predictions of primary productivity towards ecosystem applications (pdf)

Filippa Fransner, UiB
Aim: Provide an overview of the current state-of-the-art in bio-geochemical modelling and predictions from global Earth System Models 

11:40 - 12:30 Long-term climate variability and climate change (pdf)

Noel Keenlyside, UiB
Aim: Introduction to the decadal to multi-decadal variability and climate change projections

12:30 13:45  Lunch

 

13:45 - 18:00 Exercises and mini-projects

Aim to assess skill and uncertainties in climate and biogeochemistry prediction products for their regions. This will be useful for understanding whether climate predictions can benefit for fisheries management. The following topics will be covered:

  • Understand model errors and biases in relevant climate and biogeochemistry variables in the regions of interest.

  • Quantify and understand the relevance of the different uncertainties in the climate models. The uncertainties will be decomposed in model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability.

  • Assess skill of decadal prediction products by comparing agains observations using common prediction skill metrics.

 

Data can be accessed from online repositories. Original source of the data: CMIP data base, NorCPM data

In the final hour each group will need to present a short summary of what they have learned and to address the question of the day: 

To what extent do you think available climate predictions can be used to reduce uncertainties in changes in the tropical Atlantic ecosystems on seasonal to longer time scales?

Postdocs in charge of the session: Lander R. Crespo, Arielle Stela Imbol, Hadi Bordbar, Iñigo Gómara

19:00 Dinner at the UCT club

Fridayh17 - Human drivers
 

​08:45-10:15 Human dimensions in a systems approach to fisheries management: an overview with examples from the Benguela  (pdf1, pdf2)

Astrid Jarre, UCT

10:15 - 10:45 Coffee and tea break

10:45 - 11:35 From shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to policy relevant scenarios for the fishery sector (pdf)

Hans Sloterdijk, CAU

11:40 - 12:30 Practical aspects of working with the human-environmental system - “participatory modelling with stakeholders” (pdf)

Louise Gammage, UCT

​12:30 13:45 Lunch

 

13:45 - 18:00 Exercises and mini-projects

Astrid Jarre, UCT practical on human dimensions indicators and, notably, the different ways of synthetic evaluation (rules, averages, fuzzy logic etc.) to get to an overall result.

18:00-18:30 Guest pre-dinner lecture: From Paris to Madrid - Where are international climate policy taking us?

Tore Furevik (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

19:00 Dinner at the UCT club

 
Saturday 18 Morning  Visit of Robben Island

Get to the pick up point at  0745. Bus will leave at  08h00 sharp from the big parking down the All Africa House to the left (Economic Building Parking marked with a yellow P at I J 4 5 on the middle campus map) and  transfer to the V&A Waterfront. The driver will have the tickets. he will lead you to the Robben Island Tour Kiosk where you will join the line. you will need your passport or ID book.09h00: Robben Island Tour (09h00 – 12h30) 13h00: Transfer back to UCT (not sure if and where a bus will be). Feel free to stay in Town and unwind a little bit at the Waterfont.  Get to the pick up point at  0745.

 

Sunday 19  all day  Cape Peninsula tour including visit of Cape Point and Cape of Good Hope and Boulder penguins nature reserve
 

Tour of Cape Town peninsula  all the way to Cape Point 

Your Guide will collect you from UCT at 08h45 and you will embark at 0900 on the Cape Peninsula Tour to the picturesque harbour village of Hout Bay. Visit Mariner's Wharf and enjoy an optional trip to Seal Island (this is for own account as it’s weather dependant) and then continue to the Cape of Good Hope Nature Reserve via the famous Chapman’s Peak Drive. Walk up to the top of Cape Point for breathtaking coastal views. After lunch visit the Penguin Colony at Boulders. Your Guide will have you back at UCT by late afternoon, 17h30.

 

 

MONDAY 20 - Impacts of environmental & human drivers on ecosystem dynamicsd
 

​8:45-10:15 Introduction to ecosystem modelling and the EwE approach (pdf-1, pdf-2)

Marta Coll, CSIC-ICM (via skype, confirmed)

10:15 - 10:45 Coffee and tea break

10:45 - 11:35 Size matters –understanding predation dynamics in marine ecosystems through size spectra and stable isotopes

(pdf)

Ralf Schwamborn, UFPE

11:40 - 12:30 Spatial autocorrelations in ecosystems (ecological focus) (pdf)

Francisco J Cao, UCM

​12:30 13:45  Lunch

13:45 - 18:00 Exercises and mini-projects

A previously published model of the Southern Benguela will be provided to groups for exploring the implications of altered productivity on the rest of the ecosystem and its fisheries.

Required Reading for student preparation for this course: Lockerbie and Shannon (2019)

Question of the day: What struck your group as most surprising/unexpected/pertinent implications for i) the ecosystem and its biological components, and ii) the fisheries (i.e. the human component) under your selected climate change scenario (run through altering future primary productivity in the model)?

Download for practical:  pdf1  pdf 2  data   Ecopath web site

​19:00  Dinner

TUESDAY  - The way forwardan

 

Time for preparing presentations on group discussions and physical oceanography-biological-management linkages 

​12:30 13:45  Lunch

13:45-15:25 Five group presentations (20 minutes each)

Group 2 presentation (Lander Crespo, Simone Lira, Juliano Amigo, Bafana Gweba, Isabelle Vilela) (pdf)

Group 3 presentation (Philip Tuchen, Evariste Zahibo, Hadi Bordbar, Julia Galetti, fernand Assene, Ina Nilsen) (pdf)

Group 4 presentation (Faye Brinkman, Mamadou Kone, Leilane Passos, Sadegh Yari, Iñigo Gómara) (pdf)

15:25-15:55 Coffee and tea break 

15:55-17:00 Group discussion and wrap up

How do you see your own work fitting in with that of others in TRIATLAS or other projects?

Are there specific key questions or avenues you have become aware of that you could collaborate on now?

What tools/resources/training would you perhaps still need?

Thoughts on workshop publication, for example synthesising concepts, gaps and solutions that have emerged from the summer school for improving the fisheries management in the tropical and south Atlantic using climate predictions

​19:00  Dinner